Kazakhstan's record oil exports lean on Italy and a single Black Sea pipeline

Kazakhstan sold a record 76.3 million tonnes of crude oil abroad in 2025, but the figures behind that milestone show how concentrated its export business has become: one country buys almost two-fifths of the oil, and one pipeline to the Black Sea moves the vast majority of it. The breakdown, published by The Astana Times on Oct. 6 using national statistics, arrives as crude trades above $120 a barrel.

Export volumes rose 7.4% from 2024 and were 20% higher than in 2015, when the country shipped 63.6 million tonnes. Earnings told a different story. Oil exports brought in $40 billion last year, 49.3% more than in 2015 but 6.8% less than in 2024, because the average value of a tonne slipped from $604 to $524.

Italy at the top of the buyer list

Italy remained the largest customer, taking 28.9 million tonnes worth $15.2 billion, or 37.8% of total export volume. The other destinations listed by The Astana Times include the Netherlands, France, Romania, Greece, China, Türkiye, Germany, Singapore and South Korea, a spread that leaves Europe, and the Mediterranean in particular, as the core market for Kazakh barrels.

One route carries most of the oil

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) handled 64.8 million tonnes of Kazakh crude in 2025, or roughly 85% of the year's exports. The line runs 1,510 kilometers from Kazakhstan's Caspian fields to the Russian port of Novorossiysk, where tankers load for world markets, and counts Chevron and ExxonMobil among its shareholders, The Moscow Times reported in July.

That dependence has already been tested this year. In July, drone strikes hit at least five tankers at the CPC terminal off Russia's Black Sea coast; the consortium suspended loadings, Russia accused Ukraine of the attacks, and Kazakhstan reduced crude output. Its energy ministry described the cut as "purely technical," taken because storage tanks were filling up after the CPC restricted intake. Kazakhstan has since condemned the strikes on its oil export route.

Alternatives remain small

One alternative runs across the Caspian to Azerbaijan and onward through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. Baku has signaled it is ready to lift its capacity to take Kazakh oil to 2.2 million tonnes a year, The Astana Times reported, a volume that would equal only about 3% of what the CPC carried in 2025. The newspaper stressed that diversifying export routes remains a priority for the country.

Shipments have also slowed in 2026. Exports in the first half fell 6.7% to 33 million tonnes, as output declined and Kazakhstan worked to meet its OPEC+ commitments; production in January-June totaled 45.7 million tonnes. Prices, meanwhile, have climbed sharply. On Oct. 6, Azerbaijan's Azeri Light grade rose to $124.61 a barrel and December Brent futures stood at $128.36, Report.az reported.

What it means: High prices raise the stakes of Kazakhstan's export geography. Expensive crude magnifies both the revenue at stake and the cost of any disruption, yet nearly all of the oil still has to pass through Russian territory and a single Black Sea terminal that drone strikes have already shut once this year. For Italy and other European buyers, Kazakh crude is a non-Russian supply that physically depends on Russian infrastructure. For Astana, the gap between a CPC that carries tens of millions of tonnes and a BTC option measured in low single-digit millions shows that route diversification is a long project, not a quick hedge. Until that gap narrows, Kazakhstan's oil revenue, and part of southern Europe's supply, will rise and fall with security on the Black Sea.